A letter from Adam Fenderson

Suburban food production and renter's rights in the context of Peak Oil

Re: the Thomas Street, Clayton Permaculture Garden

3 May 2006

Oil is the lifeblood of industrial society, the most convenient and versatile energy source humans have ever known. It has fueled the dramatic rise of human population and the spectacular achievements of the last 150 years. However, evidence suggests that we may already be entering the beginning of the end of the age of oil.

According to a growing number of respected scientists and commentators the global peak in the production of crude oil, or 'Peak Oil' appears to be almost upon us. 'Peak Gas' looks to be not too far behind.

No combination of alternative energy sources looks likely to be able to fill the gap oil and gas will leave behind. As such, the following years may mark the historical turning point from a decades long era of industrial growth, to a decades long era of economic decline.

Peak Oil will likely manifest first as an inconvenience, as higher energy and food costs – such as those we are now beginning to experience. Eventually we will need to make quite major adaptations. By about 2040-2050 we will be likely be getting relatively tiny amounts of oil out of the earth, at something like 1930s, 1940s levels, perhaps even less, while the world population will have perhaps quadripled since those times.

Australia is in a particularly vulnerable position regarding Peak Oil. Bass Straight peaked in production in 1986, while overall oil production peaked in 2001 and has been falling rapidly since. According to the Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association, on current trends, Australia will be 78 per cent dependent on oil imports by 2014. http://www.energybulletin.net/1871.html

What does this have to do with the issue at hand, that of renters and suburban food production? What implications does the issue have for the future of suburbia – which has been built around cheap oil and the motor car – and what do real estate agents and landlords need to know about these uncertain times ahead?


Peak Oil and the Real Estate industry

Peak Oil throws up a great challenge to the real estate industry to 'green' itself. This is a challenge which has already been recognised by some influencial visionaries in the industry itself.

US based ARC Financial Corporation’s Chief Energy Economist Peter Tertzakian, is author of A Thousand Barrels a Second: The Coming Oil Break Point and the Challenges Facing an Energy Dependent World. CEO of RE/MAX International, Dave Liniger writes that the Tertzakian's book "should be required reading for those of us in the real estate industry." (quote source)

Tertzakian believes that a restructuring of suburbia in the wake of Peak Oil is inevitable. In a recent interview he said, “with [regards to] the migration to the suburbs, the real estate industry helped catalyse that – gave the people what they wanted. Now I'm saying things have to change. Once again, it's the real estate industry which has to think creatively about how to give what it is people want... It is the real estate people that mold the way we live.”


The Future of Suburbia

A documentary film dealing with the subject of Peak Oil declares that it spells 'The End of Suburbia.' Author James Howard Kunstler has gone so far as to declare suburbia “the greatest misalocation of resources in human history”.

Increased living costs associated with Peak Oil will make life in the suburbs far more difficult, and the implications of this are far from predictable. Social breakdown could ensue, and quality of life could decline precipitously.

Yet, there is hope for the millions of us who live in the suburbs, and by implication the value of landlords' investments, and the ongoing survival of the real estate industry.

Existing community networks, useful skills, local food systems and sustainable small businesses will all play a part in maintaining suburban cohesion. All our efforts in this direction now will have a multiplier affect, as people confronted by difficult and changing conditions will be given visible and attractive directions to move.

A great part of this effort we be the move towards greater suburban self-sufficiency, and far more food production within the suburbs themselves. This means doing away with large lawns, which require huge amounts of water, fertilizers, fuel and garden chemicals to maintain, with very little tangible output.

Permaculture gardens are part of greener, healthier, happier vision of a sustainble suburbia. To say we need positive visions for a time of energy crises can not be overstated. Through self-education, skill-sharing, active community building, sustainable small business, and urban food production, the occupants of Thomas Street, Clayton are essentially building a lifeline to the future.

On both economic and ethical grounds, they deserve only the greatest encouragement.

Sincerely,


Adam Fenderson
Founder and Co-editor of Energy Bulletin
www.EnergyBulletin.net

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EnergyBulletin.net is an online news service which receives over 600,000 monthly visits, covering the imminent peak and decline of global oil production.

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